Political analysts and some lawmakers believe that, in the absence of a clear mechanism and with continued resistance from insurgents, the Afghan government’s attempt to reconcile with the Taliban will bring no positive results.
Jaweed Kohistani, a Kabul-based political analyst believes that reopening peace talks with the Taliban is “shameless”. “Resuming peace talks with the Taliban means that we have forgotten all the sacrifices made by the Afghan people towards reconciliation with the Taliban,” he said. Kohistani’s sentiments are shared by many other analysts and political actors in Kabul, who, for a variety of reasons, are against continued peace talks with the Taliban.
Asadullah Saadati, a Member of Parliament from Diakundi province argues that reinstating peace talks the Taliban demonstrates how the government has no clear policy for war and peace. “People will no longer trust the government if it is changing its policy [in its approach to the Taliban] every day,” he said.
Saadati further argues that the Afghan government must first establish a clear mechanism in consultation with the Afghan Parliament if it wishes to push forward successful negotiations with the Taliban. Kohistani agrees, stating that the government is reopening peace talks prematurely with no clear mechanism for establishing reconciliation.
These discussions coincide with a public announcement made in late November by Masom Stanikzai, head of the Joint Secretariat of the High Peace Council that the government is again initiating peace talks with the Taliban. Stanikzai said that the government will enter a new strategic phase of peace talks, which includes the possible establishment of a political office for the Taliban in country. He believes that the best place for the Taliban to have a political office is inside the country.
Germany, Turkey and Qatar have already stated that they are prepared to let the Taliban open political offices in their countries.
Reports on reopening peace talks with the Taliban come two months after the head of the High Peace Council, Burhanudin Rabani, was assassinated by a Taliban courier in his own home. The government’s intent to reopen peace talks is an apparent reversal of its strategy following Rabani’s assassination.
Immediately following Rabani’s murder, President Hamid Karzai announced that his government would cease peace talks with the Taliban and bridge strategy with Pakistan: a central operating point of the Taliban insurgency.
Rabani, who was killed in an suicide bombing.
The Afghan government claimed it had evidence to suggest Rabani’s murder was planned in Quetta, Pakistan and it was impossible that the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was not somehow involved.
In response, the Afghan government deployed a senior delegation to Pakistan, under chairmanship of Hesamudin Hesam, the Deputy Chief of Afghanistan’s National Intelligence Services, to submit its evidence to Pakistani officials.
The Afghan government is now stating that peace talks with the Taliban shall reopen based on consensus made during the traditional Loya Jirga held in mid November.
Stanikzai explains, however, that the process for reopening peace talks is complicated as both sides maintain strict, and often opposing conditions for engaging in the peace talks. Furthermore, the Taliban have repeatedly refused to engage in peace talks with the Afghan government until the complete withdrawal of foreign troops.
The Afghan government’s repeated and often fruitless endeavors to push forward peace talks over the past few years and the strong opposition of the Taliban, suggests that the current attempt to jump-start a new phase of peace negotiations will yield no positive results.
Kohistani further pointed out that Afghanistan made a huge sacrifice towards peace with the loss of Rabani, who was arguably the country’s greatest hope for successful peace talks. “Recommencing peace talks with the Taliban will bring no positive results,” he said.
Noorulhaq Uloomi, a military and political analyst argues that “reconciliation is the only way to end the war,” but also warns that the Afghan government must ensure rule of law and strongly defends its position under any negotiations with the Taliban. Uloomi also asserts said that Afghanistan needs Pakistan in dialogue with the Taliban and cannot isolate Pakistan from any negotiations if it hopes to succeed.
“The best way to reconcile with those insurgents, who are trained outside the country and who bring insecurity to Afghanistan, is to talk with Pakistan,” he added.
Uloomi believes that waiting for the Taliban to participate actively in the peace process is unrealistic and that Afghanistan should not fool itself into hoping for any real positive outcome.
“We should ‘cut off the hands of enemy’ and do not let them to challenge the county’s security.”
“Taliban do not recognize the Afghan government as a credible voice at the table,” he said. “Taliban who are willing to come to the table with the Afghan government are not recognized as the real Taliban.”
Uloomi further argues that the country’s best bet for pushing forward peace is through the constructive reform and institutional strengthening of the Afghan government. Afghanistan’s institutions must be composed of honest and professional individuals, working together towards a common vision of positive change.
Kohistani also suggests to ‘cut off enemies’ hands instead of ‘talking with the Taliban’. “We should ‘cut off the hands of enemy’ and do not let them to challenge the county’s security,” he said.
