The first phase of Afghanistan’s security transition has already been completed, with seven areas, including Kabul, handed over to full Afghan control. Within the next few weeks, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is scheduled to announce the areas identified for transition in Phase Two.

But so far, the results of the handover have been uneven: some provinces, such as Panjshir and Balkh, are enjoying relative stability, while other areas, such as Kabul, Helmand, Bamian and Herat, are reporting further deterioration in their security situations.

The majority of Afghans express some concern over the ability of their national security forces to handle the current situation on their own. They insist that the foreign troops must provide further training, as well as additional assistance in terms of weapons and other equipment.

Over the past few weeks, www.bamdad.af has conducted an informal survey of the provinces under transition, to assess the situation in each.

 Kabul

There is no place where the pitfalls of the security transition have been more visible than in Kabul.

The entire province, with the exception of two districts, Surobi and Farza, was handed over to full Afghan control in the summer.

But the insurgents lost no time in testing the capacity and the resolve of the Afghan forces.

Asharaf Ghani, The Head of  the Transition Commission

On June 28, the Taliban attacked Kabul’s Intercontinental Hotel, a popular destination for Afghan government and international guests. The attack lasted for several hours, and at the end, NATO troops had to be called in to end the siege. Twelve people died.

On August 18, the Taliban targeted the British Council, killing 12 and wounding 16 others.

In the most spectacular operation to date, the Taliban mounted a complex series of attacks in the Afghan capital on September 13, concentrating their efforts around the U.S. Embassy and the headquarters of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). For more than 20 hours the city was all but paralyzed, with roads and neighborhoods closed, some children unable to go to school, many ministries unable to function.

Again, international troops had to be called in to end the attack.

Most recently, a suicide bomber killed Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the High Peace Council. Rabbani was targeted in his home in central Kabul on September 20. The Taliban first claimed responsibility for the attack, but later denied any involvement.

The city is full of police checkpoints, and at least two airborne security cameras keep track of suspicious movement in the capital. Nevertheless, the insurgents have been able to penetrate many important targets.

The numerous attacks have raised concerns among Afghans that their national security forces are unable to protect them. They fear the situation will deteriorate still further once the international troops withdraw.

 Analysts believe that the growing insecurity is due to the weakness of the Afghan Security Forces.

“It is not surprising that such events occur since our security forces are not trained and well-equipped,” said General Abdul Wahid Taqat, a political analyst.

Despite worrying signs and the increasing attacks on influential figures, President Karzai has called the security transition a success. The process is “irreversible,” he has said.

 Bamian

The security handover began in Bamian on July 17. Bamian has traditionally been a peaceful area, and this small central province seemed an ideal candidate for transition.

Analysts believe that the growing insecurity is due to the
weakness of the Afghan Security Forces.

 But in recent months several incidents have sparked concern among Bamian’s residents, and the gradual withdrawal of the New Zealand troops that had been watching over Bamian added to the worry.

Fatema Majidi, who works in Bamian’s Department of Statistics, said that the situation was good in her area before the transition. But since the handover to Afghan security forces the insurgents have stepped up their activity.

Just a few days ago, reported Majidi, two suicide bombers were arrested while attempting to detonate their explosives in Bamian city.

Mohammad Hussein another resident of Bamian city confirmed Fatema’s assessment.

“Gunmen attacked a police vehicle in Siaghan district two weeks ago, killing three police and a civilian,” he said.

Barat Ali Barat, another resident of Bamian province, also says that the security situation in Bamian has been worsening in recent months.

“We ask the international community not to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan,” he said. “The security situation is deteriorating by the day.”

Others agree that the foreign troops should remain in Afghanistan. Many are worried that Afghan security forces are not up to the task of protecting the country on their own.

People in Bamian city seem to be in a better position than those in the more remote areas of the province.

Suliaman Wahedi, who lives in Bamian city says Siaghan, Kohmard and Shebar districts have become more unstable since the transition. People also no longer feel safe on the Bamian-Kabul road, he added.

“The Taliban have recently killed a number of people along that road,” said Suliaman.

Bamian Governor Habiba Sorabi confirmed this, saying that armed insurgents had recently attacked a police vehicle in Saighan district along Bamian- Baghlan road, killing three police and one civilian.

 Herat

Herat, the jewel of western Afghanistan, has great strategic importance both for Afghan and international forces, by virtue of its proximity to Iran and Turkmenistan.

Security in the district has fluctuated, with several incidents occurring inside the province over the past few months.

In the past week alone, two roadside bombs killed at least 18 and injured more than 10.

Residents welcome the move to increase the role of Afghan security forces in ensuring the province’s safety, but with certain reservations.

“I agree that we should hand over security responsibility to Afghan forces,” said Mahboob Karimi, a resident of Zendajan district. “But foreign troops should stay until the Afghan forces are able to take over. They will be able to do this once they are adequately equipped.”

Herat resident Ghulam Hazrat agrees.

“The government should have equipped security forces first, then taken over the responsibility,” he said.

“Afghan Security Forces are not self-sufficient yet,” said Sosan Ansari, a university student at Herat Law Faculty. “Afghan forces should have worked together with foreign troops for a longer time to learn military tactics. Reportedly, one in ten soldiers desert, which has raised questions about the capability of the Afghan forces.”

According to the U.S. Department of Defense, actual desertion rates are closer to 25 percent, or one in four soldiers.

General Sher Mohammad Karimi, Chief of Staff of the Afghan National Army, dismisses such allegations.

 “Soldiers used to go missing but now no one escapes from duty,” he said.

Jahida Akbari, a resident of the province, believes that the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan is in the best interests of the country and the Afghan people.

“Many explosions have occurred in Herat since the transition,” she said.

Analysts say Afghan Army needs more equipment.

 Helmand

The volatile southern province of Helmand was a surprise choice for transition. It is one of the most insurgency-plagued provinces in Afghanistan, and many doubted whether the Afghan security forces would be able to hold the area on their own.

Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital, was handed over this summer, and residents are saying that the situation is getting worse.

“People were happy about the transition at the beginning,” said Jawad Dawari, a reporter at the Hewad private television station in Lashkar Gah. “But a few weeks after the handover, suicide attacks increased.”

One example of the increased insurgent activity, said Dawari, was a recent attack on the Kabul Bank branch that killed 18 people.

 “Police have a remarkable presence in the city now,” he said. “They have installed many checkpoints after the transition to pursue suspicious people. But people are afraid that police might not be able to ensure security.”

Mohammad Anwar, a shopkeeper, said that people were facing many security problems.

“Our lives are being threatened and no one cares,” he said. “A bomb exploded right in front of my shop a few days ago.”

 Balkh

Residents of Mazar-e-Sharif, the capital of Balkh province, say the city is just as secure now as it was before the transition. Most say they have no worries about the situation, but this does not necessarily translate into confidence in Afghan security forces.

According to one military officer Beg General Zaman Ferozi, even though Afghan forces have taken control of Mazar-e-Sharif, the foreign troops are still lending a hand with military operations and other security measures.

 “I think it was mostly a symbolic transition in Mazar,” he said. “No positive or negative changes have occurred.”

But not everyone is as sanguine about the transition.

 “Handing over security responsibility to Afghan forces means the return of the Taliban to power,” said Shams-ul-haq Sadiqi, a resident of the Mazar-e-Sharif. “Our security forces have limited capacity.”

Many residents of Balkh province say they do not trust the Afghan forces to ensure security.

“We do not have even a single jet fighter,” says Khisrow Khurasan, who studies Journalism in Balkh University, “so it is impossible to secure the country unless we have a strong Air Force.”

Panjshir

Panjshir, a province just a few hours’ drive from the Afghan capital, and a popular recreation spot, was on the list of provinces to be transferred to Afghan security forces. But according to the residents of the province, there was no real transition, since there never had been foreign troops in charge of Panjshir’s security.

Ruhollah Yuufi, a resident of the province and chief editor at Khurasan local radio, said that there were no foreign troops except for the Provincial Reconstruction Team in the province and that Afghan forces had had full responsibility for security.

“The armed opposition propagandizes the withdrawal of foreign troops to make people worried about the situation,” he said. “Therefore, the security transition has raised concerns among people in the Panjshir as well.”

“Afghan forces, with the cooperation of local people, had always been in control."

Abdul Ahad Wahidi, a resident of the province, has not seen any changes in the situation since the handover.

“Afghan forces, with the cooperation of local people, had always been in control,” he said.

 Laghman

According to residents of Meterlam, capital of Laghman province, transition has made little difference in their lives.

Laghman governor Mohammad Eqbal Azizi said that the security situation was satisfactory and there were no security concerns in the city.

But Raz Mohammad, a resident of the Mahtar Lam, said that foreign troops still move across the city. “They ban the whole street while passing the city, so there is no transition” he adds.

But Javid, another resident of Mahtar Lam disagrees.

“The security has been improved since the transition to Afghan forces,” he said. “Now there is less civilian catastrophe.”